Hair like that had sexy new ideas — a philosophy, perhaps. It had the sort of rakish sweep that could command a press conference, smouldering volcanically above the jagged peaks of an unbuttoned collar. How do we know if a manager is good? The question sounds almost too obvious to ask — anyone down the pub will be happy to explain it to you loudly over a pint — but professional organisations with millions at stake whiff on it every year.
If the study of up-and-coming coaches can be called a science, it remains a largely theoretical one. Everyone loves a winner, so it makes sense that employers would start by looking for coaching talent toward the top of the table. The managers we admire most are the ones who find a way to punch above their weight.
The results are striking. Maybe performance over squad value is a fair measure of what a manager brings to the table. One important trait for a good sports stat is stability, or how much it varies from season to season. By that standard, our manager metric is a bust. His seven months in London went, er, not quite as well.
Brighton, meanwhile, signed Roberto De Zerbi even though his final season at Sassuolo had been about average compared to their squad value. What can explain the difference between these two very different hiring stories?
Not every club is as careful about this step as Brighton. The other consultant agrees. Figuring out which managers have exceeded expectations is the easy part. You can watch their players flinging them into the air at a trophy celebration and envision your club doing the same next season.
