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British strategy must go beyond preserving the status quo. This no longer exists. Two decades of Iranian expansion and regional turmoil including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have produced a new and evolving balance of power that currently favours Iran. Establishing a favourable balance of forces requires diplomatic, economic, intelligence, ideological, and military steps to undermine Iranian expansion, pressure the Iranian regime, and credibly threaten an overwhelming response to Iranian escalation and reprisals against Iranian attacks in the UK.
In an era of growing polarisation, it is fascinating to witness a multi party consensus on Iran policy. Iran poses a threat to British citizens on British soil. MI5 Director Ken McCallum identified no fewer than ten credible Iranian plots on British soil in , while Met counterterrorism policing lead Matt Jukes identified another five plots in early Undoubtedly, Iran is becoming more brazen in its prosecution of international disruption.
In such a critical geopolitical environment, we are proud to endorse this paper on British strategy towards Iran. It is truly the first of its kind: no British think-tank has written such a comprehensive analysis of the Iran threat, and provided detailed recommendations that cut across policy areas with such specificity and nuance.
The policy the paper articulates will make the UK a critical power in an increasingly fractious Eurasian political environment. Meanwhile, the UK is executing its Indo-Pacific Tilt to engage in and stabilise a region central to global prosperity and security, a policy reinforced in the Integrated Review Refresh.
Executing the Tilt entails an emphasis on the Middle East. The region is the vital commercial hub connecting Europe and Asia, an energy powerhouse, and home to hundreds of thousands of British citizens. The Middle East is therefore central to Eurasian competition. Sustaining the Tilt, and shepherding into existence the Atlantic-Pacific partnerships the UK seeks to spearhead, requires a coherent Middle East policy. As Iran accelerates its nuclear enrichment, the risk increases that Russia assists Iran in nuclear breakout, facilitate advanced military technological transfers, and support Iranian intelligence activities in the UK and the EU.